Where do we think windows open?
Forecasts here are explicit, frozen at each release, and graded when the next vintage lands. This page is the governed forecasting surface: it turns scenario paths into reviewable calls, keeps the forecast ledger visible, and separates scenario counts from future calibration.
Scenario-implied window calls
A phrase like 3 of 5 scenarios open the window by 2027Q4 (scenario-implied 60%)means three of Green Street's five scenarios cross the metro's window condition by that quarter. Read the count first and the percentage second.
The five Green Street scenarios are equal-weighted in v1, so percentages move only in steps of 20: 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100%.
Opens applies to oversupplied metros where the development window may improve.Closes applies to constrained metros where a favorable window may fade. Balanced metros should be read as monitoring calls until the regime moves clearly to one side.
Ledger status tells you whether the call has been frozen for the current release and when it can be graded. Example: frozen 2026Q1 · grade pending next vintage means the call is locked for this release and waits for the next Green Street vintage before scoring.
Expandable rows show timing value and revision-watchlist context without changing the top-line call. Wait 4 quarters: +150bps means the Baseline lease-up rent conditions are 150 basis points better if the start slips four quarters, assuming an 8-quarter build period. The best-start rule chooses the start with the highest Baseline occupancy gap at delivery, using rent as the tie-break.
The slump case can show HIGHER late-window rent growth — Green Street scenario paths mean-revert, so a slump often rebounds into late lease-ups. The slump's true cost appears in the occupancy column: delivering into an emptier market.
Timing values are relative economics in basis points only — dollar impact requires deal-level assumptions and is deliberately not shown.
Revision watchlist calls appear when our challenger diverges from the Green Street rent path by ≥1.5pp and Green Street sits outside our band. Upward watch and downward watch are disagreement labels, not grades. Permits momentum is a driver, never a trigger, and is labeled honestly as supporting or conflicting. Every revision-watchlist call reads not yet scored — activates with the 2026Q2 vintage.
Probabilities on this page are scenario-implied and equal-weighted — they have not been historically calibrated. Calibration begins when the second Green Street vintage is archived (2026Q2).